Seems pretty clear Claude is winning this AI race
Anthropic’s valuation now hovers at around $1 trillion on Forge Global, a leading private marketplace exchange, its CEO Kelly Rodriques told Business Insider. OpenAI’s valuation on the platform is $880 billion, a slight uptick from its March funding round.
Since Anthropic and OpenAI are not yet public companies, the vast majority of investors are forced to buy via secondary markets, with existing stock in the companies sold by current or former employees or early investors. Neither company responded to a request for comment.
One Anthropic shareholder recently offered to unload shares at a $1.15 trillion valuation, according to Ken Sawyer, cofounder and managing partner at Saints Capital, a venture secondary firm.
A “very well known growth fund” offered to buy Anthropic shares at a $1.05 trillion valuation, Jesse Leimgruber, founder of OpenHome, posted on X this week.
“Absolutely wild,” he said.
Some interested buyers have gotten more creative, offering to sell their home in exchange for Anthropic shares at a valuation above $800 billion.
For no good reason
When the bubble finally bursts it’s gonna be a doozy.
You keep saying that, but it’s not going to happen
Or it’s not going to happen. Name 3 bubble bursts since 2008. I think we’re passed major financial bubbles in general and now the market just suffers by bleeding out the vulnerable in silence. There are no more dramatic bubble bursts.
A trillion valuation implies an average $350bn revenue per year over the next 20 years (20% margin, 8% discount rate).
Antrhopic current ARR is $30bn so 100bn is not a crazy valuation. But 1000bn is.
Your calculation implies that anyone is still looking at fundamentals when evaluating a stock.
Agreed.
Also the 20% margin assumption is probably -20% with training and energy demands. Which values the company at $-100bn
Lots of promise, no sign of delivery
Huh? They are the best quality delivered by any Commercial AI company. Are you confusing compainies who provide AI as their service with what the actual AI bubble is? The AI bubble is built off companies making promises of what they can provide using AI. They are the ones who cannot deliver. Anthropic is the best performing AI service on the market. They wont cause the AI bubble or its eventual burst. They aren’t valued by what their consumers arent able to provide. Anthropics valuation is based off its own intrinsic factors which is affected by the state of the bubble and again not the cause or blame.
I feel like you’re not grasping just how much money they have to make to justify a trillion dollar valuation. They could make a billion dollars every single year for 2 human lifetimes and still not live up to the hype.
By delivery I meant profit. Return on investment.
I don’t have any doubt that the profit will come soon. Virtually every CEO is pressuring their employees to use AI as much as possible. Anthropic just has to crank up their prices to 11 and companies won’t really have a choice but to pay since they will have become so reliant on AI
They already cranked their prices up to 11. You run out of tokens really fast lately.
If you think that subscription is cranking up prices to 11, try API. You’re gonna burn 100€ in like an hour easily with not too heavy of a workload.
What is Anthropic’s product useful for, if all of their downstream users are incapable of delivering a product using it?
OpenAI is failing to monetize their model, is falling behind on Claude on benchmarks, can’t compete with Google on pricing/costs, is struggling to retain talent, and people don’t trust Sam Altman.
Unless something major changes, it really seems like we’ve passed the peak of OpenAI’s trajectory and it’ll be mostly downhill from here.
Unless they become part of the military industrial complex
Get that rich-man’s Spirit Airline bailout treatment
These AI companies are playing a huge game of musical chairs. When the music stops, most of them are going to left standing around with their dicks in their hand and wondering where all the money went. It’d be funny if it didn’t also mean the economy crashing for the rest of us.
Why would economy crash for the rest of us if it’s all mostly vc funding and funny money?
what do you mean? at the moment Anthropic is profitable and desperate for more compute, they are crashing all the time from too much demand and have had to take away so many features from their plans due to crashing their servers from heavy demand:
After speculation and frustration spread, Anthropic’s head of growth, Amol Avasare, took to social media to clarify that this was a “small test on ~2% of new prosumer signups.” As for the reasoning, he explained:
When we launched Max a year ago, it didn’t include Claude Code, Cowork didn’t exist, and agents that run for hours weren’t a thing. Max was designed for heavy chat usage, that’s it.
Since then, we bundled Claude Code into Max and it took off after Opus 4. Cowork landed.
Long-running async agents are now everyday workflows. The way people actually use a Claude subscription has changed fundamentally. Engagement per subscriber is way up.
We’ve made small adjustments along the way (weekly caps, tighter limits at peak), but usage has changed a lot and our current plans weren’t built for this.
So we’re looking at different options to keep delivering a great experience for users.
They are not making money on any monthly plan users except people paying for enterprise per token. The entire thing is built on the hope that businesses will continually spend huge amounts of money on it forever.
At the moment they have no reason to doubt that
Mistral’s revenues soar over $400mn as Europe seeks AI independence
https://www.ft.com/content/664249e7-e8d5-4425-b397-ad3ed590b305?syn-25a6b1a6=1
And Mistral appears to be 6 months to a year behind Claude which in the AI race is a fucking eternity
Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate has reached $14 billion, according to the company’s own announcement. The company says this figure has grown more than 10x annually for the past three years. That kind of growth from a company earning the bulk of its revenue from business customers, not consumer subscriptions, is unusual.
The enterprise numbers tell a more specific story. Over 500 customers now spend at least $1 million per year on Claude, up from a dozen just two years ago. Customers spending more than $100,000 annually have grown sevenfold in the past 12 months. And eight of the Fortune 10 are now Claude customers. Axios noted that 1 in 5 businesses using Ramp now pay for Anthropic, up from 1 in 25 a year ago, and about 79% of OpenAI’s paying users also pay for Anthropic, suggesting the market isn’t zero-sum.
The numbers are staggering
At my workplace which is extremely tepid and slow moving, they initially rolled out Microsoft Copilot much to the hate of everyone who knows about AI
The developers have been demanding Claude and they’re doing a very slow roll out of it which is amazing in itself, who would have thought they could roll out anything that isn’t Microsuck Dogshit Premium Pro 365
Some interested buyers have gotten more creative, offering to sell their home in exchange for Anthropic shares at a valuation above $800 billion.
No way this could possibly go badly.
It definitely isn’t a bubble, that’s for sure.
Sure as shit isn’t degenerate gambling, I know that much.
So ai is really good at coding but when all the humans who are really good at coding make a new company their ai product beats the older one. mmmmmm. Sorry our local news had this bit on what you can do with ai. one part that was funny was. people expect their workplace to give them a doc on how to use ai but that is not going to happen you have to figure it out for yourself. Its like well you see the management to not competent enough to use ai to create a doc on how they want ai used so its up to the general masses to use ai to figure out ai. Its not just ai but it feels like everything is pushed down to the customer. Its like a combination of pay to work things out yourself and work real hard and someday you will get paid for it. Things are nuts.
Someone needs to develop a browser extension or something that replaces the microphones in pictures of AI CEO’s with bongs so they are more truthful representations of what the CEO is saying
The perfect use case for generative AI
Lol, LMAO in fact
I love using Claude and not paying any money for it. I know I’m the product, but it just confirms that we’re in a massive bubble and these valuations are ridiculous. Not real money. “Trillion-dollar” is meaningless if it never touches the real economy.
Yeah I don’t pay for AI either. When I finish my free credits I just switch to a competitor for the rest of the day.
Yea it’s exactly like the dotcom bubble. People thought domain names were worth millions, when realistically people just came up with other domain names or used different TLDs like .net or .org.
Add the word AI to your company and it’ll be worth more than it is as well
Just look at the shoe company that decided to rebrand as an AI company and tripled their valuation.
Was more like +500% wasnt it?
It’s the dot com bubble all over again. Going to end the same way that one did as well, most of these companies are going to go bankrupt, a few will just eat the massive loss, and an even tinier handful will actually come out ahead. I’m betting the event that’s going to finally pop the bubble is when OpenAI is forced to file for bankruptcy in another year or so despite its ridiculous stock valuation.
It is much, much larger than the dot com bubble.
And also provides much, much less of anything of real value.
