

Well insurance only pays out on the value the retailer bought their inventory for, not the sticker price. Yeah they’re getting a lot of money but rebuilding inventory and a new warehouse is probably more money. And Insurance companies might start considering underpaid employees as an insurance liability.




My guess is they’re not a 50/50 binary. Like how in sports betting one team is favored over another to win, maybe its a 45/55 split. So if any given military action has a 5% chance of happening and a 95% chance of non happening, the overall aggregate of bets on this kind of thing should pretty closely mirror that 95/5 split.